NBA Finals Preview

#1: Boston Celtics- 106.2 Defensive rating

#2: Golden State Warriors- 106.6 Defensive rating

The top two defenses squaring off for NBA supremacy. Good defense plus elite shot making, and playmakers win championships. This will not be the rock throwing slug fest we saw when Miami took Boston to the limit.

The Celtics trot out a unique defensive lineup that usually doesn’t have a true weak link teams can exploit. The Warriors operate on the cerebral greatness of Draymond Green and overwhelm teams with timely rotations and high IQ players that can adapt on a possession by possession basis.

Their 3-2 matchup zone gave Dallas fits. Dallas didn’t utilize the middle of the zone like the Celtics should be able to. Putting a smart playmaker in the middle of zone is one way to neutralize the scheme. Al Horford can catch the ball in the middle, face up, and make quick good decisions to give the Celtics an advantage. Marcus Smart can play this spot too as his passing and decision making has grown throughout his 8-year NBA career. While improvements have been made, his decisions can be shaky during crunch time; but the growth in that department is still admirable.

Luka Doncic was able to generate some rim pressure against the Warriors zone during their lone win. Expect Brown (12.2 drives per game) Tatum (13.7) and even Marcus Smart (9.7) to try to replicate that success getting into the gaps.

The Celtics have sharpshooters that can shoot Golden State out of the zone. Zones are usually run when teams don’t have the personal to play man to man defense. Or when teams feel comfortable letting their opponents shoot a lot of 3s because that team can’t shoot efficiently. 41.8% of Celtics shots have been 3s this postseason according to CleaningTheGlass. Grant Williams, Al Horford, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Payton Pritchard are all shooting 38%+ from deep. These players have no fear letting it fly from deep (Marcus Smart doesn’t either). The Warriors excel at rotating on defense and contesting those presumed open shots. It will be fascinating to see if they can hit every rotation against these shooters or can Boston force them to abandon the zone?

We saw the Warriors go zone a lot with Poole and Steph on the floor together. Steve Kerr didn’t allow the electrifying bucket generating guards to get targeted by the Mavericks great 1 on 1 players. We must imagine a similar game plan will be enforced vs two elite 1 on 1 players in Tatum and Brown.

But when the Warriors were in man, Steph ran the game plan to a T and showed why his defensive effort is contagious. On the PnRs Steph was targeted in, we saw him hedging high and quickly getting back to his man. Reggie Bullock or Dorian Finney-Smith were the two he was getting back on majority of the time. This game plan got burnt in stretches. Dallas is led by an all-time talent Luka Doncic. He was able to hit his shooters in their shooting pockets for knockdown 3s in spurts. But even when Dallas hit shots, Golden State stayed true to the scheme. The pick arrived, Steph hedged, dropped back, and the rest of the Warriors handled their rotation responsibilities. Bullock made them pay some possessions, knocking down 3s with Steph trying to recover. But over the course of the series, the Mavericks streaky shooting woes showed its head (streaky in the regular season but they caught fire to end the year). The Warriors were living with their game plan.

Steph always sticks to the game plan and guards to the best of his abilities. The best player on the team competing on defense is contagious. That’s all role players want to see. The star must play hard and set that tone. With Steph's efforts, Draymond quarterbacking the defense calling out offensive sets, and telling others where they should be; we see why the Warriors have been one of the best defenses since the dynasty began. Further than effort they have defensive talent too. Wiggins, Gary Payton II, Klay Thompson (?) have all been elite perimeter defenders at some point in their careers.

Wiggins was able to slow down Luka (is that even a thing?) as much as one could. The craftiness of Luka was met with a world class athlete in Andrew Wiggins. Picking him up full court, Wiggins was a pest for 5 games. Even when Luka beat Wiggs with his craftiness and got by Wiggins was still able to recover with his freakish athleticism. Standing Luka up at the rim or forcing him to pass it out to one of his shooters.

The Jayson Tatum matchup is a different story. Wiggins will be face to face with a crafty scoring assassin that doesn’t lack athleticism. Wiggins is the better athlete of the two, but Tatum is going up looking for posters when he gets that step.

One of the premier shot makers in the league, Tatum can’t afford to have those cold shooting performances.

Game 3 vs Miami: 3-14 FG 10 points

Game 3 vs Milwaukee: 4-19 FG 10 Points

Unless Boston is knocking down the 3-ball at an astronomical clip while suffocating the Warriors offense, they won’t win a game with these type of Tatum numbers. These games are rare. You could consider them flukes. Tatum followed these games with big time performances.

His 46 point special game 6 vs Milwaukee to keep Boston alive was all time special. Wiggins should make Tatum work but ultimately Tatum will win that matchup. The side steps, step backs, and driving tendencies (when he’s ATTACKING) will be too much to contain.

The return of Gary Payton II is flying under the raider. The on-ball hound holds claim to a 2.7 STL% during this Warriors comeback season playoff run. He possesses some of the quickest hands in the world with a strong core aiding him in guarding bigger threats. He and Klay Thompson should see a lot of Jaylen Brown.

Browns loose handle has been a major topic on NBA twitter. Brown is a player that will have 5 turnovers in a half off getting the ball snatched or just dribbling off his foot. It’s often he’s on the other side of the spectrum with his handles, pulling off jaw dropping pull backs and taking the life out of defenders knocking down heavily smothered jumpers. Look for Payton to get into Brown and pick pocket him on more than one occasion.

Klay was one of the best perimeter defenders in the league at his peak. His lateral quickness was top tier and he always made elite guards like Kyrie Irving and Damian Lillard work for every bucket. Klay hasn’t been that same defender since returning from his achilles injury. We saw his strength on full display matched up with Luka a few possessions last series. He was able to take the contact Luka initiated with his big body. Klay was strong as a rock on these possessions, not budging as he watched Luka shoot jumpers over him because he couldn’t back him down low enough. Against a quicker shiftier Jaylen Brown, Klay is bound to lose this matchup. Even with Jaylen Browns loose handles, elite ball pressures and players with quick hands give him the most problems. Klay isn’t either of those things at this point in his career.

Klay's offense has been much more interesting to study. Shooting 40% from 3 on high volume and 49% from the midrange. Klay obviously lost a step athletically but luckily his game wasn’t predicated on that. He’s a skill guy. His jumper will never leave him, and he plays with that competitive edge. There isn't a shot he doesn't like. He's always been this way; before the injury and currently. No shot is a bad shot in Klay's mind. Can you blame him? Shooting the ball like this after missing two years because of major leg injuries is extremely impressive. Dropping 32 point with 8 3PM to close out Dallas had to raise his confidence even more.

Turnovers have been the achilles heel for Golden State every year since they’ve become dominant. Turnovers are just something that comes with their ball moving constant motion offense apparently. They take risks offensively because they’re always so locked in on defense. In these playoffs, Golden State is turning ball over on 15% of their possessions.

Boston is right there with the Warriors in terms of turnovers. Turning the ball over on 14.7% of their possessions. There was a lot of the noise in the last series around their TO’s. Talking heads claimed these were self-inflicted TO's. That Boston was just careless with the ball and once they tightened up, they’d abuse Miami. On ball pressure plays a big role in carelessness with that ball. It’s not always easy to make decisions with the ball with some of the best defenders draped all over you, getting in your jersey. This thought experiment will be put to test when Wiggs, GP2, and Draymond take on the most difficult matchups. All 3 will generate pressure on the ball forcing offensive players into movement.

The chase game will be beautiful. Derrick White and Marcus Smart (before he took the Jimmy Butler assignment) did a remarkable job blowing up Miami's sets by staying attached to lethal shooter Max Strus. This disrupted everything Miami wanted to do in the half court; forcing the Heat to settle for tough “do it yourself” shots. Steph Curry is on a different level. From his conditioning to constant moving and relocating, the Celtics defensive gurus haven’t chased a player like this around for a full series before. When the Celtics do blow up sets, the Warriors won’t settle. They’ll keep moving the ball until they find the shot they want. The shots they want are demoralizing. Teams play solid defense for majority of the shot clock just for Steph to relocate and find himself open for a 30-foot bomb. Or it could be Klay coming out of their patented split action knocking down gut wrenching threes.

As far as the “do it yourself” shots and possessions Boston forced Miami into, Golden State has players that excel there. 2x MVP Steph Curry is averaging 12.4 drives per game. Contrary to the regular fan perspective that he only shoots 3s. He’s one of the best shot creators in the game.

Jordan Poole is flat out brilliant. The ability to create something out of nothing is such an important skill and Poole has mastered it. Hitting opponents with Steve Smiths “Smitty”, sick behind the back moves, in-and-out burgers and a plethora of other moves; Poole is a problem with the ball in his hands. Getting to the rack at will against certain matchups. Pair that with his deep range and the spacing Steph and Klay provide, he’s hard to stop once he gets rolling. He makes boneheaded decisions from time to time, but he’ll grow as he’s still only 22.

“Others win championships” in the words of 5x champion Shaquille O’Neal. There are so many good role plays that contribute to winning basketball in this series. Derrick White chasing Curry off screens and slashing to the rim, Gary Payton II causing TO’s, Grant Williams being a certified utility man, and the battle of the bigs.

The Mavs initially planned on hunting Kevin Looney, presumably the weakest perimeter defender in the Warriors starting lineup. They had no success targeting him. The 6’9 center plays bigger than his height and moved his feet with ballerina type skill to stop the Mavs playmakers. Looney has been Rodman like on the glass averaging about 13 rebounds per game over the last 6 games. The 6’10 athletic Louisiana product, Robert Williams, is a lot bouncier than Powell. He hits that glass as good as anyone in the league; averaging 4 offensive rebounds per game which was good for 4th overall. Williams presence deters player from driving to the rim. He’s an intimidating shot blocker with a quick second jump.

Payton Prichard provides spacing with his knockdown shooting. He makes up for his lack of defensive prowess with hustle, heart, and consistent energy. Playing more than 10 minutes a game vs, this high-octane Warriors offense may be a stretch. It’s likely he’s played off the court as he doesn’t have a favorable matchup in the series. Maybe Ime Udoka matches his minutes with non-scoring threat defensive dawg Gary Payton II, but will coaches match up role players minutes?

Otto Porter has been a key rotational piece already playing 260 minutes during these playoffs. He’s questionable for Thursday’s Finals opener. He was a perfect addition this offense. An adaptable player with his shooting stroke always works for Golden State. He understands this isn’t his show and his job it to fit in and provide even more spacing. His nice rotation defense and random mid-range facials will be missed if he can’t suit up.

Derrick White is bound to have a big game. He’s scored 13+ in 3 of the last 4 games. Albeit on low volume, he’s shooting 74% at the rim during this playoff run. He was a nice secondary playmaker off the catch attacking the rim against Miami. He’ll need to have that same type of mentality if the Warriors go zone. His jumper has been a negative since becoming a Celtic. He’s been an average shooter through this career, can he shoot the 3 at an average level against this elite defense? His contributions as a ball mover helped turn this team around. The Celtics never needed a scoring guard to compliment the Jays. Derrick White is just what the doctor ordered.

Andrew Wiggins as a cutter and clean up man is something to watch. Tatum probably guards him. Does he attack him off the dribble making him work on both sides of the ball? Will guarding Tatum or Brown take a toll on him and limit his offensive production?

Grant Williams is shooting a scorching 47% on 131 corner 3s. The Warriors surely won’t scheme to leave him open (sorry Budenholzer). He’s matched up with Durant, Giannis, and Jimmy Butler. An impressive group of names and he made them work harder for buckets. Those are wings players, while the Warriors top scoring options are primary ball handlers. Grant Williams won’t draw the Steph or Klay assignment most likely. He’s not a chasing type of defender, as his strength lies in great one on one defense.

He and Draymond are very similar. It’s good that we’re in a place where swiss army knife role players are appreciated. These players are thought of as integral parts to championship teams (rightfully so).

The Greg Popovich coaching tree continues. Steve Kerr — in his 6th finals as a coach — and Ime Udoka — rookie coach that led one of the greatest turnarounds— both played under Pop and learned from him on the sidelines. Udoka displays the confidence and brass of a coach that’s been here before. Always confident and never mincing words in postgame interviews, the Celtics made the right decision bringing him on board. He has no problem adjusting on a game-to-game basis. Giannis is destroying our double team? Play him one on one. Jimmy Butler hesitant to shoot his mid-range jumper? Run drop on him (this is a switch defense). What’s the adjustment when Klay, Steph, AND Poole are firing on all cylinders?

Kerr has been here before and expects nothing but excellence from his players. Designing this beautiful offense that revolves around Steph Curry’s dynamic shooting. He helped turn a regular playoff team (elite defensively shoutout to Mark Jackson) to one of the best offenses we've ever seen. From his postgame interviews, it seems like he exudes poise. The players always praise him for being a player's coach and understanding the flow of games. The game plan to hedge Steph and commit to it regardless of the results was a great coaching move. Or changing Steph's matchup to Dorian Finney-Smith because he isn’t as comfortable shooting off screens compared to Reggie Bullock was a great adjustment.

With all these keys laid out, I must say Warriors in 6 seems like the appropriate option. Boston going on those dry spells will hurt. Those random times in a game where they can’t buy a basket from anywhere on the court. Golden State will take advantage of that. The Celtics are a better version of Memphis. Elite defense with a (2) bucket getters that can create from anywhere. The Celtics should lead a lot throughout this series similarly to the Grizzles. The dry spells will be too much to overcome. I trust the Warriors more in crunch time.

The Warriors experience in these high leverage moments will surely be a deciding facto. That experience will push them to capitalize on the Celtics cold stretches. They’ll feel it. They’ll feel those moments and understand how to approach them. They’ve been here before. Experience is one of the best teachers and something you can’t buy.