Miami vs Boston: Part 2 of the Bubble Guppies

Bubble guppies. Bubble boys. Fluke run. There were all types of names and disrespect thrown at the Miami Heat for making the NBA finals back in 2020 inside the bubble. Two years later, we find ourselves in the same predicament, Boston vs Miami with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line. We’ll see two great coaches willing to make adjustments, two phenomenal switch heavy defenses, and some roles players that are cut from the same cloth.

Bam Adebayo can be a curious case at times. He’s always one of the best defenders in the league but there are times where his scoring ability leaves you wanting more. Bam can go in modes where he catches the ball and immediately looks for a dribble hand off (DHO) without looking to score. That plays a factor in the Heats sometimes stagnant offense. But good Bam is a different story. Catching the ball and facing up for that mid-range jumper or rolling so hard that he’s wide open at the rim for a Jimmy, Hero, Lowry, or even Gabe Vincent lob. That’s the best version of Bam. When he’s engaged offensively so many things open up. Which Bam will we get in this series? Al Horford did a great job matching up with Giannis Antetokounmpo. Yes, Giannis went berserk in games 3,4,5, and 6 but he’s an all-time talent, you have to understand those types of players are going to get theirs. According to NBA.com tracking data, Giannis shot 36% (33-91) with Horford as the primary defender. That is a spectacular number, Al did make Giannis work. But Bam is a different type of big compared to Giannis. Bam won’t catch the ball from the 3-point line and try to attack with a full head of steam. His scoring output comes from a lot of lob passes and rolling off screens. I think the athleticism battle is the reason why Bam wins this matchup. He can rise over the top of Horford for those lobs.

Al isn’t the only big the Celtics have to offer though. Rob Williams aka Timelord is a center that has the same playing style as Bam. He’s more lob dependent than Bam and won’t take jumpers but athletically, he definitely rivals Bam. He would be able to break up those lobs and even deter the Heat playmakers from making those passes with his quick bounce and second jump. Williams is a monster on the offensive glass as well averaging 3.9 ORPG (3rd) and ranking 4th in putbacks in the regular season. Hindsight is 20/20 but Williams could have helped the Celtics match up with Bam in the bubble. Maybe he wasn’t ready then but the player his is today will be. Williams is battling left knee soreness and was cleared to play in game 7 vs Milwaukee, but Ime Udoka chose not to play him. Udoka said Williams will be available for game 1 vs Miami with no minute restriction. Let the big man battle begin.

Grant Williams and PJ Tucker are real life versions of the Spider-Man meme. Gritty competitors that are prolific corner 3 ball shooters (someone needs to tell Coach Bud that after he constantly left Grant Williams open in Game 7). Kevin O’Connor, NBA media member for the Ringer, used PJ Tucker as Grant Williams comp coming into the league. Saying that he has shades of Tucker and Boris Diaw, those comparisons are not far off. Grant guards the other team's best player for stretches throughout the game. On most teams, he’d do it all game, but the Celtics are so unique in the sense that they usually have 5 players on the court that are all elite on ball defenders. Grant made Giannis work too and that’s all you can do.

PJ Tucker is a sneaky load. Teams usually forget about him on the offensive end daring him to beat them with his shooting or ability to put the ball on the floor. The mistake comes in when teams go to sleep and let him crash the offensive glass. Everything about Tucker is relentless and the glass is no different. He's so slick at sneaking by his man and collecting boards. He’s willing to go through you or around you, either way Tucker is fighting for EVERY loose ball. Per Cleaning The Glass, Williams shot 47% on corner 3s and PJ was at 41%. Safe to say Erik Spoelstra and Ime Udoka won’t purposely leave those guys wide open. Let’s get into the coaching matchup. Erik Spoelstra, a top 15 coach of all time vs Ime Udoka, a rookie head coach that had one of the greatest in season turnarounds in league history. You can see his imprint on the defensive end. Boston was the #1 ranked defense in the regular season with a 7.4 net rating. That’s actually a bonkers number when you consider they started the season 23-24. He uses his special personal to his advantage. In the Bucks series, Giannis was double teamed to begin. Generating a lot of good looks for his teammates, Ime decided to play him 1 on 1 with Grant Williams, Al Horford, Robert Williams, Marcus Smart and occasionally Jaylen Brown. It’s such a luxury to have that many bodies to throw at Giannis with most of those players at least being capable of holding their own. Payton Pritchard is the only perceivable “weak link” on the Celtics defense, but he makes up for it with hustle, energy, and knockdown shooting. Derrick White may very well be their weakest defender amongst players playing 20+ minutes in the playoffs. That’s a shocking fact because he’d most certainly be the defensive stopper on a team like Utah or the Hornets. Ime has worked wonders with this team but one thing they don’t have is depth. That’s not on the coach and depth usually doesn’t play a huge role in the playoffs as coaches usually shorten their rotation but this is not the reality for the 2022 Miami Heat.

8 players are getting 20+ MPG for Miami and the matchup determines who plays. Gabe Vincent was great for guarding Trae Young and continued to start when Kyle Lowry went down. Victor Oladipo played a bigger role in the Sixers series with his self-creation abilities and the will to clamp up James Harden. Spo reads the game possession by possession and uses all the chess pieces he has to win his matchup. The Heat don’t care about politics like other franchises. Duncan Robinson is on a $90 Million contract and played a grand total of 18 minutes against the Sixers. Some Heat fans disagree with that move but regardless, if Spo feels like a certain player can’t help the Heat win he’s not going to play him. Miami has the #1 playoff defense amongst teams still alive. The competition factor is something I won’t ignore. The Nets and Bucks are tougher challenges than the Hawks and Sixers. While that’s true, Miami's switch heavy defense will travel anywhere. Bam may be the most impactful defender in the league with bulldogs in Jimmy and Tucker guarding the wing. Max Strus is supposed to be the player teams target but is hasn’t been easy to score on him this postseason. He’s using his big upper body and strength in general to beat offensive players to the spot while knocking them off their course. Herro is still a player teams attack but he’s limited the ball watching compared to the regular season. There were possessions vs Philly where Herro stood up Harden and got steals on him (is that more about Harden or Herro?) Herro’s play will determine a lot. Herro, Oladipo, Strus, Vincent must outplay Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, and Derrick White for the Heat to come out on top.

The backcourt matchups are fascinating. Jaylen Brown is an all-star that has stepped his game up in the playoffs once again and Smart was named DPOY this season. Yet here they are matched up with a 6MOY, a former all star trying to find his footing again, and 2 undrafted players that are shocking the world. You’d think the Celtics win this matchup easily, especially with no word on Kyle Lowry's health status. But those Heat players are scrappy and fearless. As Jimmy Butler would say “they have no b-word in them.” I believe the Celtics are fully equipped to guard Herro. He’s a semi-shifty guard that doesn’t have those athleticism traits and he’s not Shai shifty or Kyrie shifty. Marcus Smart is a menace on perimeter and players like that are guys he eats for breakfast. I respect Herro's game enough to say he’ll have a breakout game or 2 and that could sway the series, but I don’t feel comfortable predicting that he’ll have a great series. The Heat were the #1 3P shooting team by % this regular season. Those numbers have dropped in the post season and Boston isn’t a team that gives up open 3s. Everything will be tightly contested, and Strus and company will have to hit tough shots. This will happen in stretches but will it be sustainable?

The star power matchup. Jimmy Butler is a 16-game player not an 82 gamer. His game has gone to a different level, increasing his averages in basically every department. Jayson Tatum is a Bonafide superstar. The shot making on display vs Milwaukee in game 6 was something to behold. Shooting jumpers that didn’t even graze the rim. 46 points shooting 7-15 from 3, Tatum willed the Celtics to a victory and extended the series. Jimmy has to play at Tatum's level or even surpass him. Butler can control the game in a multitude of ways. His facilitation traits and lockdown defense can control the pace of a game. I would classify him as a playmaking lockdown bully. Making plays happen no matter how they look. He gets to the rack and draws real fouls just as good as anyone. He’s playing at an MVP level so far, but will he continue to do so against the best defense in the league? A defense that constantly shows they can take wings out of the game?

Who will win? The Boston Celtics have not been the best team during crunch time this year. They’ve blow leads and game 5 vs Milwaukee was the latest example. The Heats offense dries up and they have go 6-7 minute stretches without being able to buy a basket often. These are two of the best defenses in the league and both coaches make adjustments, you really can’t even run the some things in back to back games because these coaches will definitely figure it out. Boston has been the best team in the NBA since the all star break (the run started a few games before the break honestly). Even though they’ve had their struggles in close games, they’ve destroyed teams and put the game out of reach before they could get to their achilles heel. The lineup of Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Jimmy Butler, PJ Tucker, and Bam Adebayo are a whopping +30.7 in 153 possessions. Factor in the competition but that’s still an elite lineup so far. They’ve found magic with two undrafted guards in the starting lineup. Two flame throwers that compete on defense. This will be a long, drawn out, ugly series. My brain is telling me Celtics. They’ve been the best team for a while and their defense is potentially an all-time great defense. The Heat are right there in terms of defense but the stagnation on offense might catch up to them this time. I’ll take Boston in 7 reluctantly. Spo's experience and the us against the world attitude Miami has makes it very difficult to pick against them. The Celtics might be the team that matches all the Heat strengths while having that 6’9 wing that could go get you 50 at any point. That 6’9 wing that can start an elimination game 6 going 5/5 from 3. Tatum's shot selection may be questionable at times, but he takes those side steps and step backs because when they’re dropping, he can change the course of a game and a series.