The 2019 draft had a consensus top 3. One being arguably the most hyped athlete since LeBron James in Zion Williamson. The uber athletic PG with a high IQ, Ja Morant was selected 2nd overall. And RJ Barrett, lefty creating machine, rounded out the top 3. Zion and Ja have both been all stars (Ja All NBA). Both look like they’re heading for superstardom. Can RJ reach that level?
20 PPG on 51 TS%
55% at the rim
31% on shots 3-10 ft
30% on shots 16-24 feet
Yes, from every perspective these are brutal efficiency numbers but we have to dive deeper. RJ wasn’t given the franchise keys like those players. Playing second fiddle to Julius Randle (sometimes Evan Fournier this year) is something Zion and Ja haven’t had to deal with.
But is there a reason RJ hasn’t been handed the keys to the car? Is he a strong enough ball handler to handle those responsibilities? What’s RJ Barrett’s elite skill? Let’s dive in on RJ with a skills analysis.
RJ could improve his wiggle. By wiggle, we mean flexibility with the ball in his hands. Adding more go to moves and counters for his counters. His pat pat killer crossover is his current go to move. Or any variation of a few tween tweens. He doesn’t have the quickest burst. He uses these moves and drops his shoulder low to get by defenders. Since he’s not the athlete Zion or Ja is, he could stand to get more moves in his game when these are cut off; or when he’s met with the help side defender. More in and out combos and crisper pull-back moves already have okay foundations in RJ's game.
There are situations where he gets cut off and plows through defenders leading to an offensive foul.
More crafty, elusive moves and finishes are things he could use. These aren’t the easiest skills to acquire. But there is a positive takeaway here. When he gets in that attack, plow through, gritty mode, he draws a lot of fouls as well.
RJ is already elite at drawing contact. During the 2021-22 season, he was fouled on 14.7% of his shot attempts; ranking in the 93rd percentile for his position (via CleaningTheGlass). He has to make improvements at the FT line as he shot a dreadful 71%. With his foul drawing ability (yes, this is a skill) we want to see him be able to take advantage of that more by converting on these free chances. Luckily, he hasn’t been that poor every year of his career. Last year he shot 75% from the line and 40% from 3. Both marks were career highs by far. We expect him to get back to those marks. We don't want to look back and say those were outlier years.
His spin pivot in traffic is another move he likes to finish plays with (pivot work in general). Lack of athleticism may be why he uses this shot a lot. Making his moves trying to get by defenders, he gets stopped. Without hesitation, his spin pivot is his favorite counter to being cut off.
In the Pick and Roll, RJ excels at keeping defenders in jail while he tries to create for himself and others. His overall PnR numbers aren’t anything to get ecstatic about. They are actually pretty low (you can see good things happening though). According to NBA.com tracking data, he scored 0.75 PPP while being the primary ball handler in the PnR. Again, not a beautiful number but there is something behind the ugliness. Using his strong frame, it’s easy to keep defenders trapped behind him while he makes his moves. This is one of his best traits. When he has the right matchup, he can really spam this.
From the beginning of the season until December 28th, this was the shot attempts breakdown from the Knicks “stars”
Julius Randle- 16.8 FGA
RJ Barrett- 13.3 FGA
Evan Fournier- 11.8 FGA
There were several games throughout this time frame where RJ would go multiple possessions without touching the ball. There were plays drew up for Fournier while Randle initiated the action and RJ stood in the corner as a bystander.
When RJ was finally set free from what seemed to be a third option role (kind of) he averaged:
December 31st -- rest of season stats
24 PPG
6 RPG
3.5 APG
35% on 6.1 3PA
19.6 FGA
He was cooking teams in transition. He struggled to finish here from time to time; but he was still a much better finisher on the break than in the half court. He has a fluid right to left eurostep in the open court to keep defenders guessing. Nice step throughs finishing with either hand. Knick fans should be encouraged with his tough finishes on high right hand lays on several possessions. RJ capitalized on turnovers throughout this stretch.
When defenders cut that hand off, you’d want to see RJ have slightly better touch around the rim. Maybe adding a better floater to his arsenal can help? His strength can be a slight disadvantage on the break as he tries to plow through defenders here too.
Finishing through two defenders is not an easy task but it’s something RJ tries to do quite often.
(Mann did grab him here, maybe explaining those frustrations)
Early in the season, Barrett would pick up his dribble on the break or even before the break started. I see that as a Julius Randle and Tom Thibodeau issue to a certain extent. He was wired to get the ball in Julius’s hands and wouldn’t always play his game because of this. As the season progressed and RJ kind of turned into the de facto #1 option, he was getting the ball and pushing. Pushing with purpose to be exact.
The finishing stats suggests RJ is one of the worst finishers in the league. My eyes don’t tell me that. He’s shown the ability to make tough shots through contact. Poor shot selection at the rim is a concern. Higher quality shots will lead to a better % (this is why versatility is key).
Attacking two set players is one of the reasons his rim %s look so brutal. Adding more moves, a mid range, and a better floater can limit those types of attempts at the rim.
RJ is a streaky shooter that can light it up when he gets going. His jumper was on full display vs the Miami Heat 11 days after Valentine’s Day.
Dropping a career-high 46 points!! He drained 6 3P shots and looked ELITE as a catch and shooter. If that was your first time watching him, you would have thought he was one of the best players in the league.
What about the games where he isn’t hot as fish grease? We want to see him become a better shooter on a neutral nights. When he isn’t going 4/4 from 3 to start the game, can he still contribute from behind the line? He shot 37% on catch and shoots this year. Getting that number in the 40’s would be major. We’ve seen it in spurts. I believe he will put the C&S together.
His midrange pull up is another point of emphasis this off-season. Instead of barreling into set defenders, a middy pull up could save him in in these situations.
Jimmy Butler is another player that uses his strength advantage and his ability to get to the line. He didn’t shoot the mid range well in the regular season. But in the 2022 Playoffs, he’s making a living from the in between spots. The importance of the midrange always shows it’s head in the playoffs. We know that’s where RJ and the Knicks are trying to go. Teams want to play winning basketball and compete for titles.
Defensively, RJ swings back and fourth from a good, neutral, and disengaged defender. He guards the other teams primary scoring option a lot of the time. Is that truly his role on a good team?
You can see the effort at times. Using his frame to cut off driving lanes. He was a positive team defender during his good stretches. His screen navigation could improve. Fighting over screens consistently wasn’t a strong part of his game this season. When guarding the best players, fighting over screens is so vital. Especially considering that most of those offensive hubs are lights out shooters that will make you pay with a slither a room.
His passing ability is neutral as well. He can thread the needle on skip passes from time to time. Or you can see him floating beautiful lobs to Mitchell Robinson. Other times we see tunnel vision from the young Knicks star. He may miss open cutters or bigs in the lane. This is a swing skill for RJ. Passing IQ is the difference between elite playmakers and good ones. With his rim pressure (he will improve as a finisher), defenses are sure to collapse and the drive and kick game is essential. He displayed this skill to end the season.
Let’s address the elephant in the room, his right hand. The average NBA fan will tell you that the left handed shot creator has a nonexistent right hand. This isn’t true though. If you’ve watched RJ since he came into the league, his right handed drives are noticeably better.
There is still work to do. You can notice a small hitch or negative hesitation when he drives right on occasion.
He does finish with his right in traffic at times. Again, more than he did when he entered the league. That shows he’s getting more and more comfortable using his off hand. To trust that hand in situations where defenders are draped all over him is a positive sign for knickerbockers.
Overall, I think RJ has the tools to be a primary creator but a secondary creator role is might be his game in the league. If he reaches his ceiling and hits these swing traits, he can be your go to guy on a great team. Right now, the ball handling limitations really suggests that a secondary creator role is where he lands.
I’m talking about RJ on a great team. Teams that are competing for championships. We get so caught up on who’s the first or second option when the goal is to play winning basketball at the end of the day. 90’s Bulls, early 10’s Heat, 2016 Cavs; none of these teams win titles without their “second options” playing integral roles.
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